Weddings in the South: Hurricanes, Part 2

We hope we didn’t leave you freaking out over our last post on planning weddings in the south during hurricane season! (click here if you missed it) If you were concerned or had questions, we’re here to answer them!  We called in an expert, local meterologist Dave Nussbaum from WWL-TV, to tell us what you should look for in hurricane watching and how it affects your planning!
According to Dave, it’ll be hard to make a “call” if you should go ahead with the wedding until just before the big day. There can be as much as a 300 mile difference in landfall location (that’s like driving from Baton Rouge to Destin, FL!)
 dave nussbaum wwltv meteroligist

Here’s How it Works:

“We look at a lot of features when trying to accurately forecast where a storm may go.  Of course, we use the official forecast coming from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).  They say that the more accurate forecast comes within 24 hours of a landfall.  When you are 48 hours from a landfall, there could be a 300 mile difference in the forecast landfall location vs where it actually makes landfall.  24 hours out there is about a 200 mile difference.  This was taken from a study they preformed looking at storms 2009-2013.  As a local meteorologist, I keep that in mind when trying to pinpoint a landfall.
If the forecast models are showing a possible tropical system to make a landfall on Louisiana 2 weeks out, I would NOT put any faith into that forecast.  That will likely change a number of times.  Usually, that potential storm has not even formed yet, and may not ever form.  It is just the model trying to make something out of a tropical wave.  It is definitely something I would watch, but not even mention on air.
If the models are showing something a week away, I would still not put much faith into it, unless there is actually something that has formed already.  Then I would watch it very closely to see how it evolves, what land areas it may track over, and what time of year it is.
If there is a storm, and the forecast track shows it coming to LA 5 days out you have to remember the forecast cone error is about 200-300 miles east or west of the edge of it.  So it will likely change.  Look back at Hurricane Isaac a few years ago.  3-4 days out it was forecast to make a landfall near Tallahassee, FL, but the final landfall was near Cocodrie, LA.  BIG DIFFERENCE!
Therefore, 2-3 days out would be my best answer as to the latest you could make the call as to cancel the wedding.  Evacuations can start as early as 48 hours before landfall for coastal areas depending on how strong the system is.  Also…I would NOT plan a wedding in August or September due to the past history of LA getting hit by hurricanes during those months.  The peak of the Hurricane Season is September 10th.”
Now, as much as we trust Dave, we don’t think you totally have to forgo your dream August or September wedding. (In fact, due to this being a slow season, you may get some great deals from your wedding vendors during these months!) However, like we said in the first post, just be prepared! Keep watching the weather. Check for daily updates and have a back up plan. Plan to make your decision on whether to postpone the wedding 2 or 3 days out, and have a way to let your guests know of any changes.
Stay tuned to WWL-TV for weather updates and hurricane watches!
Look out soon for the next installment of our new blog series, Weddings in the South, about dealing with your wedding vendors before the wedding and the day of the event!
As always, having a professional handy for all of these unexpected times and decisions is best! As wedding coordinators, we help brides in all ways! We’re like your best friend who just got married and has all of the best advice from how to deal with demanding relatives to navigating your vendor contracts. Contact us today for whatever help you may need during your planning process!
 

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